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Portable e-book readers have been available for a decade now – although you might be forgiven for thinking that they just recently exploded onto the scene in 2009. The Franklin eBookMan, released in 1999, is generally held to be the first dedicated electronic book reader – although it should be noted that there were some earlier devices, the Apple Newton is sometimes cited in this context, which some may consider to be e-book readers.

Today, the most famous reader, and the clear (but hardly unchallenged) market leader, is the Amazon Kindle reader. Amazon can justifiably claim to have made a huge contribution to the development of the electronic book market. They are, of course, not alone and there are more than a dozen other companies with portable readers available – including Sony, iRex, Plastic Logic and Samsung. Apps are available for the Apple iPhone and Apple are expected to launch a tablet based PC by the end of 2009 (or possibly early in 2010) which would be ideal for reading electronic books.

Apart from the development work being carried out by major electronics manufacturers, there are a number of other initiatives ongoing which serve to promote the cause of electronic books.

For example, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger recently announced that the state of California would commence supplying free downloadable electronic textbooks for students in the fall of 2009. Whilst Governor Schwarzenegger did not make specific reference to the Amazon Kindle, a new paper published by the New Democratic Leadership Council – a Washington think tank founded in 1985 which has Hilary Clinton as a member – did. Entitled “A Kindle In Every Backpack” the report recommends that each of America’s K-12 school children be supplied with a free electronic book reader which would be used to access digital academic textbooks.

It does very much appear that the concept of portable electronic book readers is an idea whose time has come. The technology is, if not fully complete, at least developed to an acceptable level. The infrastructure is there – both Amazon and Google have adequately large libraries of electronic books. The political will seems to be gathering momentum and the academic establishment is rapidly getting behind the concept.

At this time there is, understandably perhaps, a strong focus on the technology and the functionality of the reader devices. However, it’s worth speculating as to what all of this could mean for the future of books, reading and publishing in general. Here are just a few possible scenarios:

Conventional book publishing patterns – hardback followed by paperback a few months later – will disappear. Electronic books will offer a low cost method to release new books and will be used to test the market.

Electronic book readers provided based upon cell phone pricing models. A low initial device cost is subsidised by a monthly subscription – or possibly a minimum number of books purchased per month.

Electronic book readers given away free (or at a large discount) to customers willing to commit to a long term newspaper, magazine, stock feed or blog subscription.

Free books to download – but with adverts every few pages. We could possibly even see hyperlinks from naturally occurring but commercially attractive keywords in the text to advertiser’s offers. [Amazon already have a large number of free Kindle books available – and Google have a huge library of public domain titles on offer]

Free readers issued by educational bodies to school children and students.

Free readers given to students by universities as an incentive to enrol with them. [This is already happening in August 2009].

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